Beware the Black Swan
Posted: Friday, June 18, 2010
by e
Dhammabucha Rocksprings Meditation
A catchphrase from Nassim Taleb's best selling book, a "black swan" is something happening out of left field so totally unexpected and serious that it whacks the world's stock markets and economies aside the head, and completely disrupts culture.
Because it is so unpredictable, a black swan laughs in the faces of analysts, pundits, and soothsayers who believe that they have a handle on the future based on past and current trends. Why? Because when a black swan appears, all bets are off.
Shall we, instead of dwelling in the usual religious pontifications of which there are thousands and which are basically the same in the belief that we are special and therefore will be protected, and if we aren't, oh well, then it was God's will! dwell in the physical world of now and what we can do to prepare ourselves for this black swan that could hit at any time. Maybe tomorrow!
In preparing for a black swan, it really boils down to two things: survival . . . and survival. So how will we survive the black swan?
If the black swan involves, let's say world economic collapse where everyone quits buying treasury bonds from the U.S. and other countries because they don't trust us to get our national debt in order, and the world goes bankrupt. Or maybe a surprise nuclear attack by China because we stopped buying their junk, where we glance at our radar screens and notice 5,000 incoming IBMs with 20 minutes to respond. Or maybe the "government" sends out its storm troopers to every one of our homes to confiscate our bibles and guns. Then we had better be prepared!
Short of digging a huge hole in the backyard and supplying it with five years worth of food, (or about 16,000 pounds), 100 cases of munitions and arms, a five foot thick steel door and three foot thick steel walls, a tamperproof, highly engineered ventilation system which would filter out nuclear fallout, pump in air, and where someone couldnt simply stuff it with a rag or pour flaming gasoline down the hole, a generator or two with enough diesel fuel for five years (five gallons a day times 2,000 days (10,000 gallons should do the trick), one gallon of water per day per person, or about 8,000 gallons of water . . . and a lot of DVDs and toilet paper, what could we do to prepare for the black swan?
We could of course do what most people will do - nothing. That would be the easiest, until of course the black swan makes its appearance. Only then would there be the mad scramble to get to WalMart ahead of everyone else to buy guns and butter. Good luck!
So lets see if we can come up with a solution to this black swan dilemma without irresponsibly laying back and doing nothing and waiting for it to happen - or overreacting by building a Fort Knox in our backyard. There must be some kind of compromise.
What if we instead decided to have faith in humanity? Rather than either selfishly building our own impenetrable bomb shelter, or conversely doing nothing, what if we began, right now, to simplify our lives? Seldom do paupers get kidnapped, robbed or attacked, so let's be paupers!
We can park our old, junk vehicle right up front at the mall. Who cares if it gets scratched. Chances are nobody will park near it anyway because it might have cooties. And why spend a lot of money insuring it. It would be a Godsend if someone did steal it! (but who would, it usually doesnt start)
As a matter of fact, if we take this pauper thing far enough, we can actually get to the point of being impoverished regarding our own ego. An impoverished ego! Imagine that. With an impoverished ego, we certainly wouldn't be that worried about ourselves or our own as much as we would be concerned about others. Therefore when the black swan strikes, we would be free to join in with the thousands of others who are helping out, or need help, and we wouldn't be the least concerned about our own safety or preserving our few belongings because we would now be impoverished in both wallet and big headedness, but rich in heart. How does that sound? So come on black swan, I'm ready!
"Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose"
- Janis Joplin (Bobby McGee)
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More commentsYeah e, I believe I am ready for the black swan to hit but I first put my faith in the human race that someday we will come to our senses.I'm with you on that Dave. Thanks.
I think that you got the Black Swan premise wrong. If you can think of it, it isn't a Black Swan. But I won't let that detract from your basic premise, voiced in the last couple of paragraphs. Right on.Good point Robert, thank you!
Interesting article E. I know that putting others needs ahead of our own always works.Especially if we do it naturally without even thinking about it. Thanks Linda.
Do no harm, until you die. May not be a favorable, but is an honorable existence.
Isn't everything else simply points of conjecture?Words of wisdom my friend. Thank you.
"Disappointment shadows all my dreams."Wise words Ella.
You are so speaking my language now! IF it's global destruction heading our way, a killer meteor for example, I want a front row seat. If it's the "whatever" that reduces as to a "dog eat dog" world of "every man for himself," I want no part of that, either. Mere animalistic "surviving" is not the same as "living" and it's the quality of life that matters to me, not the simple taking of one more breath.And your solution is indeed the correct path for humans to start taking now! Simplify. We've equated "industrialization" with "civilization" for so long that we've lost sight of the fact that it has been industrialization that's given us most of our grief, as well. Primitive folks who were/are not industrialized remain far more civil than modern man.Well said indeed.Very well said yourself Randy! Thank you.It would be nice to blame industrialization for all of our problems, or any other worldly endeavor, that we humans seem to find some way to pervert for selfish goals.
Can we not evolve, yet find satisfactory uses for our inventions, say to end world hunger, or to escape our ultimate destination of destruction, should we remain on this planet to it's ultimate demise?
We have the ability to reason, to use for the preservation of humanity, beyond what other species have the ability to command.
Should we not use it, as opposed to sitting like peas in a pod, waiting for whatever life offers us, simply because the greedy seem to beat us to the punch?Corporate greed requires participation. We can only look in the mirror! It has to begin inside each one of us to make a changed world. Thanks David.
Its an inspiring piece raymond. Black swans probably will descend faster than we can ascend towards an impoverished ego...but lets keep working at it.bestsAbhyThat's all we can do, keep working on ourselves. Thanks Abhy.
Well -- Raymond you Rock!! LOL but like you I believe human nature is basically good and because civilization could never have happened with human co-operation. The "everyman for himself dog eat dog" scenario comes from the elite corporate mind set-- bent of selling fear to the average person not from real people.When 911 happened hundreds of Americans were forced to land in Gander Newfoundland -- Without a second thought the folks of Gander took these stranded Americans in gave them food, comfort and shelter -- in most cases refusing to accept any payment -- and did this until the Americans could go home.I like to believe those actions by the people of Gander is the RULE not the exception of folks all around the world.After Katrina devastated New Orleans it was regular folks who sent the most help, the most quickly. The reported violence was 1) over reported 2) mainly from trigger happy Law enforcement -- not the folks of New Orleans.If the Chinese were dumb enough to send 5,000 ICBMs that would create enough radioactivity for them to kiss their collective butts good bye as well.
Black swan or no we will prevail!!!!
Prevail together. Thanks Terry, very well said.
Great Article!!! Thank you so much for this great information, and I wish you the best of luck in the future!!!!Well thank you so much D. Wishing someone the best of luck is such a beautiful, selfless thing to do.
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